The
abyss.
I was in Vegas this year ****ing off during the WSOP. I was at a poker table one morning when someone I respect probably more than anyone else in the (poker/gambling) world sits down. I respect him because he has been around/in action/surviving forever→ sounds easy I’m sure to anyone who has been crushing over their first few years of live play (there are plenty of people on extended heaters all around the world), but it’s not, at all, for a myriad of reasons (just look at how few 10 year+ vets there are)… I also respect this guy because he is completely loaded with humility and sincerity- he will talk straight/share stories and information with anyone who is not a POS, and if you watch closely you will see him help/take care of all sorts of very down on their luck/haggard looking characters (I can only imagine how many of these dudes were crushers/ballers at one point) who pass by him in the poker room, randomly or not…
ANYWAYS, this dude has pretty much “seen it all.” At least as much as anyone else I ever play with (I’ve played with older players—this guy is mid-fifties-- who have prob played more hours of poker total, but I’m talking about playing in the biggest games, for a living, etc). And in addition to poker, this guy is a very sharp sports bettor/gambler. So he understands edge available, variance, etc, extremely well (especially for an lol live pro)…
ANYWAYS, ANYWAYS, this guy takes a 1-outer beat for stacks to some foreign kid pretty quickly after he sits down. Now he has never been one to complain at the table obv (anyone who has been around at all knows to not do this), and the permanent dark bags under his eyes tell you this is far from the first time he’s gotten super unlucky/faced adversity in his life (to further illustrate how old school this dude is, when I started playing with him he straight up told me I reminded him of Stu Ungar, because I was a fish 9 handed, but the last person he liked playing against short-handed)… But he actually has a legit befuddled/just seen a ghost look on his face after his ~ 3k stack is pulled in by the dealer and pushed to the foreign kid. Which is my que to say quietly from across the table, “Gross.”
Surprisingly (shockingly, actually) he breaks code and opens up to me in front of everyone. “(DGAF),” he says in gentle disgust (he knows I’ve got some miles on me too now lol), “that’s the third 1-outer this week!” And after I make the actual “eek” face, he concludes while shaking his head, “These past 2 months are the worst I’ve EVER run… Seriously… Just incredible…”
So what?! Why am I making this super long as it is thread, even longer? Just to talk about some old schooler who ran bad this summer???
No. I’m writing this post for me (and for some of you). This old schooler wasn’t just “running bad.” He knows how to handle “running bad.” He was running sooooo bad that he was actually in the variance abyss, where NO ONE can see straight/act right/play their A game.
After 30-40 years of beats, swings, anomalies, etc, one hand/one stroke of bad luck certainly wasn’t going to phase the Vegas old schooler. And it didn’t. It was the anomalous streak of bad luck strokes (I only witnessed the most recent one) that got him. But still, that this super seasoned vet, who understands math/probabilities/variance/ etc very well (and he’s tough as nails btw), was completely owned/destroyed by his recent unlucky streak- I found that to be pretty ****ing amazing/telling. And his face/reaction/befuddlement that morning has been in the back of my mind ever since…
I’ve been to the variance abyss a couple times in my own career (2 insanely horrific against all odds stretches over ~ 7 years of high volume live play/gambling where I myself- pretty ****ing logical, well versed, battle tested, etc- was seeing ghosts and in turn, acting/playing a fool.).
I’m actually just coming out of my second stint in the abyss now (I ran good and won heaps over my last 2 sessions, which doesn’t mean I’m safely out for sure or I can’t go right back in lol, but I def feel different than I have the past few months, and I look forward to returning to form as a poker player/person soon- I hope). And it temporarily changes you, no matter who you are/how long you’ve been around/how much you’ve thought about all this stuff…
The abyss makes you self-destructive. It makes you depressed. It drains your energy. It makes you make bad calls, bad folds, bad bluffs, bad value bets, etc. It makes you readable at the table. It makes everyone else less readable. The fish suddenly play OK against you. The scared grinders suddenly play well against you. And the world class players suddenly own your troubled soul.
The variance abyss also makes you do dumb ****/things you never would. For respectable gamblers like the Vegas old schooler, it makes you actually talk about your bad luck at the table, even though you know it’s bad for the game and no one cares/wants to hear about it. For other less respectable gamblers, it often does much worse. There are countless examples obv (just go search NVG or HSNL) of the abyss quickly turning OK people/ harmless poker enthusiasts into scammers, deadbeats, crazy people→ no one running good/OK ever owes a bunch of people money or is out scamming/committing crimes or sleeping on the streets or whatever.
So what does the abyss look like? It’s more than just some longshot beats obv. It’s ALWAYS finding the top of a range when the money goes in. It’s finding the very bottom of a range when the money doesn’t go in. It’s constantly turning 2 pair or trips when you are against a set. It’s ALWAYS BEING AGAINST A SET. It’s flopping a set yourself (finally) but knowing you aren’t going to win (and you don’t). It’s the game breaking at your lowpoint every session. It’s the 100 vpip fish taking a phone call as you get your first good hand. It’s being in position with dominating hands against a whale all night and never winning. It’s having a rep/image such that no one folds anything to you and yet you don’t turn over a winning hand for like 3 sessions straight. It’s doing all the things you’ve always done to cultivate a good game (investing lots of time, money and energy) and then having some other good player randomly show up and start binking all over the place until all the free money is gone. It’s getting all your playable hands in the sb. It’s having someone spill their drink on your lap. It’s getting gum on your pants from under the table- on both legs. It’s knocking your sirachi sauce off your food tray and having it hit the floor in such a magical way that it shoots up into the air and all over the well dressed high stakes limit pro behind you. It’s someone forgetting to straddle when you get aces. It’s firing a second barrel as your opponent picks up a flush draw, firing a third when they get there, checking back worse when they don’t. It’s having a nit bluff you…
In the abyss you don’t lose 5 flips in a row. You lose 5 flips in a row, then 5 more, then 5 more, then 5 more, and so on… You get sick of flipping but the whale demands you do it/he pays you juice. He’s a little bit shady and you don’t know if he already looked at his cards so you agree, but only if you can switch cards. He agrees and you give him your Aces… You don’t fire the 5 sharp nfl plays you get (because you are being responsible) and you watch them go 5-0 easy. The next week you say, “**** it, gamble!” and you fire the 5 new sharp plays given to you. You go 0-5 (partially because Eli Manning is a worthless human being), and you suddenly realize that you’ve had 0 winning sports betting weeks in the last 6 months. Now needing to earn in poker, you lose a bunch, 4 sessions in a row- in insanely soft short-handed big games, that YOU built. You win 200 bucks the next session (hey, you’ll take it), but get completely whacked right when you sit down the following session. And so on…
So who has been to the abyss? All but the newest players have seen glimpses of it imo. I got overset twice in an hour and 4 times in a session playing big a few years ago. That’s a glimpse. I played a 3000 bb pot with A9 vs AA on 9954 and did not win a few years before that. That’s a glimpse. I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted. If I hadn’t already been in the abyss, that would have merely been a glimpse as well.
The abyss is basically relentless bad luck/no relief. You have to think, “OK, and it can’t get any worse than this” at least 20 times in a row spread out over time before it’s even possible you are in it. You have to FEEL like you CAN’T WIN (even if lots of data/results/logic suggests the opposite). You have to literally want to cry or break something for several hours straight (depending on how you deal with ****) for there to even be a chance you are in it. You have to a least ponder for a second when getting dressed which shirt might be luckiest/break the slump (even if you aren’t a superstitious idiot). You have to at least consider seat changing or asking for a new setup for real (even though you hate that **** and know it’s super retarded and would never actually do it). You have to at least get mad at/airball the dealers a little for your bad hands. It has to look like there are 15 people at the table when the game is full. You have to start thinking a little, “This guy is playing kinda good” when you know deep down said guy is super terrible. You have to honestly think (and maybe even tell a friend), “No one has EVER run this bad before…” Otherwise, no shot you have been there imo.
As mentioned, I’ve been to the abyss twice in my (pretty long) career (fingers crossed, 7 hail marys, etc, my last 2 sessions just brought me out). The Vegas old schooler has probably been there more than that (though he plays a WAY lower variance brand of poker/gambling, so maybe not). Guys like Doyle Brunson, Barry Greenstein, Mike Matusow, Ted Forrest, etc, I’m sure they’ve all been there plenty (you can see it on their faces). But have guys like Antonio Esfandiari? Idk, he’s prob played a lot of poker, but as a commentator he’s said some things that honestly make me think he hasn’t/he doesn’t even remotely grasp variance as it applies to live poker.
What % of the people playing in the biggest game in your casino have been there? Like really been there? I’d say maybe 20%. What % of the hotshots/LAGs (people still playing LAG that is) have been there? Pretty much zero.
The reason for these low figures? For sane, healthy people, one extended trip to the abyss is enough imo. They aren’t going back. Whether that means playing way tighter/more conservative, much smaller (where the abyss doesn’t really hurt), or quitting poker/gambling all together, that’s what the human survival instinct has most sane people do imo. The pain and the financial loss is just too much…
As mentioned, some warriors do just stick it out and get perma bags under their eyes and occasionally act like rookies at the table. And some stay around but it’s not long until they resort to illegal/dirty activity until they are completely broke, locked up, banned, or worse.
And then others try to document/sort through their super fishy thoughts (which only show up while in the abyss every few years) with super long, rambling essays posted anonymously on the internet, all in an effort to be more objective, stronger, and more sane (and maybe help a few others do the same) in general, and ESPECIALLY the next time they find themselves in the The Abyss.
Spoiler: A standard brutal downswing for an online player is ~ a career for a live player (in terms of # of hands). Obv live games are way softer/lower variance per hand, but still, something kinda spooky to think about imo if you are fortunate enough to have never really been in the live abyss/are skeptical it exists ...
K, now run good now/don’t trip on this post too much lol, just let it be something you have in your back pocket to better cope/come out faster should you ever find yourself out shopping for lucky shirts, telling your friends you have “the worst luck ever”, or grinding HARD in bankroll rebuilding mode- again, after being super pumped up- again just a few months ago.
GL